HomByt LinkedIn Post Kit

CopyThe buyer question this morning is not "did affordability finally get fixed?" It is: "Does the payment work at today's quote, and what concession closes the gap?" August 21 housing snapshot: • Bankrate daily 30-year fixed: 6.72% • Bankrate daily 15-year fixed: 6.09% • Freddie Mac weekly 30-year fixed: 6.65% as of August 20 • Freddie Mac weekly 15-year fixed: 5.95% • MBA weekly 30-year fixed: 6.77% • MBA mortgage applications: -0.4% for the week ended August 14 • 10-year Treasury: around 4.69% to 4.71% on August 21 • 30-year Treasury: above 5% in the long-end selloff • July housing starts: 1.239 million annual pace, -12.4% MoM • July housing starts: -13.5% YoY • July single-family starts: 808,000 annual pace, -9.9% MoM • July building permits: 1.443 million annual pace, +5.0% MoM • July single-family permits: 894,000 annual pace, +2.5% MoM • August NAHB builder sentiment: 35, up from 34 • Builders cutting prices in August: 35% • Fed funds target: held at 3.5% to 3.75% • Fed vote: 9-3, with three officials favoring a quarter-point hike • July CPI: +0.1% MoM / +3.4% YoY • Core CPI: +0.2% MoM / +2.5% YoY • July PPI: unchanged MoM / +4.7% YoY • Final demand less foods, energy, and trade services: +0.4% MoM / +4.7% YoY • July retail sales: -0.6% MoM / +5.0% YoY • Initial jobless claims: 209,000 for the week ended August 8 • Continuing claims: 1.78 million • June PCE inflation: 3.7% YoY • Core PCE: 3.3% • July payrolls: -23,000 • July unemployment: 4.1% • May-June payroll revisions: -103,000 • University of Michigan preliminary August sentiment: 51.0 • Redfin pending sales: down 1.6% • Redfin new listings: +1.7% week over week • Realtor.com July list prices: -2.4% YoY • Realtor.com July price-cut share: 20.0% of listings • Realtor.com typical days on market: 57 • July existing-home sales: 4.06 million annual pace, -1.7% MoM • July median existing-home price: $431,400, +2.0% YoY • Existing-home inventory: 1.54 million homes / 4.6 months supply • July pending home sales: -2.3% MoM / -2.2% YoY • Builders using incentives: 63% • Builders cutting prices: 35% Here is the translation: The construction market is cautious, but not frozen. Starts dropped hard in July. Permits rose. Builder sentiment is still weak. More than one in three builders are cutting prices. At the same time, a 6.72% daily mortgage quote is still a high-6% payment market, and the 10-year Treasury is still around 4.70%. So the buyer opportunity is not "rates saved me." The opportunity is structure. Seller credits. Rate buydowns. Builder incentives. Repair economics. Listings that have been sitting. That is where prepared buyers have leverage, especially when demand is still soft and builders are cautious. The buyers winning right now are not waiting for a perfect rate headline. They know their number before they shop. → Does it still work at 6.72%? → What happens if the quote moves closer to 7% again? → What seller credit would lower the payment enough? → Can a buydown beat a small price cut? → Is the stale listing or builder inventory the better deal? Start with your number first: hombyt.com/prequalify 5 minutes. No commitment. Just clarity. #FirstTimeHomeBuyer #Housing2026 #MortgageRates #HomByt

CopyKCC MARKET NOTE - August 21, 2026 Friday gives real estate a mixed rate tape, not an all-clear. Freddie Mac eased. Bankrate repriced higher. Long Treasury yields are still hot. The 10-year Treasury is still around 4.70%, keeping 7% mortgage stress live. Current tape: • Bankrate daily 30Y fixed: 6.72% • Bankrate daily 15Y fixed: 6.09% • Freddie Mac 30Y fixed: 6.65% as of August 20 • Freddie Mac 15Y fixed: 5.95% • MBA weekly 30Y fixed: 6.77% • MBA mortgage applications: -0.4% for the week ended August 14 • 10-year Treasury: around 4.69% to 4.71% on August 21 • 30-year Treasury: above 5% during the long-end selloff • July housing starts: 1.239 million SAAR, down 12.4% MoM • July housing starts: down 13.5% YoY • Single-family starts: 808,000 SAAR, down 9.9% MoM • Building permits: 1.443 million SAAR, up 5.0% MoM • Building permits: up 3.1% YoY • Single-family permits: 894,000 SAAR, up 2.5% MoM • August NAHB Housing Market Index: 35, up from 34 • NAHB: index remains below 40 for the 16th consecutive month • Builders cutting prices in August: 35% • July CPI: +0.1% month over month • July CPI: +3.4% year over year • Core CPI: +0.2% month over month • Core CPI: +2.5% year over year • July PPI: unchanged month over month • July PPI: +4.7% year over year • Final demand less foods, energy, and trade services: +0.4% month over month • Final demand less foods, energy, and trade services: +4.7% year over year • July retail sales: -0.6% month over month to $763.6 billion • July retail sales: +5.0% year over year • Fed funds target: held at 3.5% to 3.75% • FOMC vote: 9-3, with three officials favoring a 25 bp hike • Initial jobless claims: 209,000 for the week ended August 8 • Continuing claims: 1.78 million • PCE inflation: 3.7% YoY in June, down from 4.1% in May • Core PCE: 3.3% • July payrolls: -23,000 • July unemployment: 4.1% • May-June payroll revisions: -103,000 • University of Michigan preliminary August sentiment: 51.0, down from 55.2 in July • Redfin pending sales: down 1.6% • Redfin new listings: +1.7% week over week • Realtor.com July list prices: -2.4% YoY • Realtor.com July price cuts: 20.0% of listings • Realtor.com typical days on market: 57 • NAR July existing-home sales: 4.06 million annual pace, down 1.7% MoM • NAR July median existing-home price: $431,400, up 2.0% YoY • Existing-home inventory: 1.54 million homes / 4.6 months supply • NAR July pending home sales: down 2.3% MoM and 2.2% YoY • NAHB: 63% of builders using incentives in July • NAHB: 37% of builders cutting prices, average reduction 6% The KCC read: 1. Construction is slowing at the start line. Starts fell 12.4% month over month and 13.5% year over year. Single-family starts fell 9.9%. That is a builder caution signal, not a demand boom signal. 2. Permits say the pipeline is not dead. Total permits rose 5.0% and single-family permits rose 2.5%. That matters for forward inventory, land timing, and builder absorption assumptions. 3. Carry high-6% debt and stress 7%. Bankrate's daily read is 6.72%, MBA's weekly measure is 6.77%, and Freddie Mac's latest published weekly benchmark is 6.65%. The 10-year near 4.70% says the long end can push back quickly. 4. Macro is weaker, but still mixed. CPI cooled to 3.4%, PPI was flat month over month, retail sales fell 0.6%, sentiment rolled over to 51.0, and claims rose to 209,000. That argues against quick tightening. But PCE is still above target and the Fed still has hike dissents. 5. Housing demand is rationing. MBA applications slipped after the prior week's bounce, Redfin says pending sales remain soft while new listings rose, and NAR says July pending sales fell 2.3% month over month. Volume is thin, resale prices are still elevated, and transaction friction remains high. 6. Concessions are the live channel. Realtor.com price cuts at 20.0% of July listings, July builder incentives at 63%, and August builder price cuts at 35% tell the same story: basis is not always made in headline price. It is made in credits, buydowns, repair economics, and builder inventory pressure. 7. Prepared capital should move selectively. This is a choppy tape, not a risk-on all-clear. Keep dry powder ready for sellers who need certainty and builders who need absorption. Bottom line: Treat the July starts drop as a warning on current builder confidence, and the permit increase as a reminder that future supply is still coming. Carry high-6% debt, stress 7%+, watch the 10-year near 4.70%, and treat concessions as the active affordability channel until the quote market confirms durable relief. KCC economic dashboard: https://landconexa-capital.vercel.app/economic #RealEstateFinance #CapitalMarkets #MortgageRates #KCC